The Monetary Matters Network

Warsh’s Fed, Hyperscaler CapEx Chaos & Trading Compute Like Oil (LIVE w/ Steve Hou)

9.2K views · 2d ago · 1:03:36

Guest: Steve Hou

Steve Hou of Silicon Data joins Monetary Matters on the day the Fed held rates with two hawkish dissents, Alphabet and Microsoft reported earnings, and two days after Anthropic’s S-1 filing. Silicon Data publishes the GPU rental indices behind CME’s planned compute futures. We discuss why renting an Nvidia H100 costs about 45% more than it did in December, why transaction prices and asking prices have diverged, and whether the forward curve says GPU rents keep rising.

The Fed Put Is Dead: Why Stagflation & a Bear Market Are Next | Vincent Deluard

18K views · 4d ago · 1:08:28

Guest: Vincent Deluard

Vincent Deluard, Director of Global Macro Strategy at StoneX, breaks down why a broader equity bear market may already be underway beneath surface-level index strength. Deluard unpacks the approaching stagflationary squeeze, driven by persistent wage pressures, slowing fiscal subsidies, and a looming political gridlock that strips away both monetary and fiscal safety nets.

Topics: Bear Market Call · Why Treasuries Now · Secular Inflation View · AI Bubble and Taxes · Fiscal Boost to Margins · Sarmaya LENS ETF

The Reflexive Risk in Financing AI Buildout Is Real, Says Investor Who Nailed AI Hardware Trade

30K views · 5d ago · 1:27:03

Citrini teamed up with Anthropic and used Claude to design scorpion antivenom candidates in just 64 hours, and 17 of them bound in the lab. The experiment led him to a striking conclusion: AI is commoditizing drug design, and the real bottleneck is now experiments, and monkeys.

Topics: Sarmaya $LENS Pre-roll · Why Citrini Is Light On AI Hardware · How The AI Buildout's Financing Changed · Does Jevons Paradox Apply To Tokens? · Sarmaya $LENS Mid-roll · AI Revenue Is Ramping Fast But Not Fast Enough This Summer

George Noble: AI Hyperscaler Earnings Go NEGATIVE by 2030

37K views · 1w ago · 1:45:33

Guest: George Noble

George Noble, the former Fidelity portfolio manager who ran the Fidelity Overseas Fund and started his career working for Peter Lynch, returns to Monetary Matters to argue that AI is a bubble and the bill is coming due. George explains why he thinks hyperscaler depreciation could exceed $500 billion a year by 2030, enough to wipe out the profits of the companies spending it, and why he calls AI “shale”: a capex arms race that no one can afford to stop.

Topics: Sarmaya $LENS Pre-roll · Why AI Is a Bubble: "No One Can Show Me the ROI" · Hyperscaler Earnings Negative by 2030? · Are OpenAI & Anthropic's Revenues Real? · How the AI Bubble Pops · CoreWeave: "WeWork With GPUs"

Is The AI Trade Over? | Jack & Max on Panic in AI Credit, SpaceX Earnings, and Semis

12K views · 1w ago · 59:13

Is the AI trade finally cracking, or is this just another shakeout before the next leg higher? Jack and Max dig into the growing stress in AI-linked credit, where lenders and bondholders are starting to question how much debt the data center buildout can really support. They break down SpaceX’s earnings and what the numbers reveal about the economics behind one of the most closely watched companies in the world.

AI Credit in Detention: Coreweave's Debt Panic & Jim Bianco's Bull Case for Bonds (Finally!)

27K views · 1w ago · 1:16:18

Jim Bianco of Bianco Research called the 2022 bond bear market and stayed bearish on bonds for six years. Now, for the first time since then, he’s constructive. Jim explains why 5% yields aren’t punishing but normal: rates should roughly track nominal GDP growth, and he expects the U.S. economy to grow at 5–6% nominally.

Topics: Sarmaya $LENS Pre-roll · Twin Panics in the Bond Market · Why Jim Turned Bullish on Bonds After Six Years · Why Inflation Is Stuck at 3%: Tariffs, China, BYD and Oil · Tankers, Diesel and Where Inflation Shows Up · Sarmaya $LENS Mid-roll

Why the AI Bubble Will Pop Before the Fundamental Cycle Turns | Ben Inker | GMO

54K views · 2w ago · 1:11:32

Ben Inker, Co-Head of Asset Allocation at GMO, joins Other People’s Money to discuss why the IPOs and subsequent shareholder unlocks of SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI will bring an unprecedented amount of equity issuance and pop the AI bobble. Inker explains how this mechanism was responsible for popping tech bubbles in 2000 and 2021 and the mathematical relationship between below average equity returns and equity supply.

Topics: AI Bubble Setup · Equity Supply Matters More · IPO Wave Math · Dotcom Fiber Parallel · Finding Non-AI Bets · Passive Flows and Liquidity

The Final Phase of This Bull Market Will Be Massive | Charles Lemonides

8K views · 2w ago · 56:55

Guest: Charles Lemonides

Charles Lemonides, CIO and founder of ValueWorks LLC, joins Other People’s Money to discuss why the 18-year bull market still has room to run. Lemonides argues that we have not yet reached the explosive "liftoff" phase typical of late-stage bull markets and explains why the biggest gains often come right before the turn.

Topics: Are We in a Bubble? · Rates Growth and Bonds · Value Investing Reframed · Micron Peak Earnings Debate · Intel Foundry · Sarmaya LENS ETF

Crisis Demand is Off the Charts and Nvidia Could Be “Absurdly Cheap”

17K views · 3w ago · 51:39

Semiconductor earnings have roughly doubled this year, yet chip multiples have compressed and the stocks are still well off their June highs. Stacy Rasgon, Managing Director and Senior Analyst covering U.S. semiconductors and semicap equipment at Bernstein, joins Jack to explain what the market fears and why he thinks the cycle peak isn't here yet.

The Most Extreme Shipping Market in History, Explained (and Why It CANNOT Last) | J Mintzmyer

21K views · 3w ago · 1:01:11

Crude tanker rates have exploded to more than $1 million per day on some Middle East Gulf to China voyages, roughly 25 times normal levels, as the Iran war and disruption in the Strait of Hormuz throw global oil shipping into chaos. J Mintzmyer, founder of Value Investors Edge, joins Jack to explain why disruption and inefficiency are rocket fuel for ship owners, why "ton miles" are the real commodity, and why real-time AIS ship-tracking data in the Strait can't be trusted.

Topics: Sarmaya $LENS Pre-roll · The Historic Squeeze in Oil Tanker Rates for Shipping · Strait of Hormuz (What's REALLY Going On) · Sarmaya $LENS Mid-roll · How Ships Are "Transporting" Through The Strait · China's Epic Return to The Oil Market Is A Complete Gamechanger

The AI Bubble is Bleeding Cash, Part 2: Anthropic's Receipts | Ed Zitron

283K views · 4w ago · 1:22:22

Guest: Ed Zitron

Ed Zitron on X Jack Farley on X Pieces Discussed “Dead Money” (Sep 29, 2026) “Premium: The Hater's Guide To AI Debt (Part 2)” (Sep 25, 2026) YouTube Important Information The Fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses must be considered carefully before investing. This and other important information are contained in the prospectus, which may be obtained by following the links Prospectus and Summary Prospectus or by calling +1.215.330.4476.

Topics: Sarmaya LENS Pre-roll · Anthropic's S-1: A Worse Business Than OpenAI in 2025 · $518 Billion in Compute Commitments · Sarmaya LENS Mid-roll · Why AI Run Rates Can't Be Trusted · Is Anthropic's Growth Plateauing?

Why AMD Is the Most Overhyped Chip Stock | Ben Pouladian on Meta’s Muse, Anthropic IPO, & Semis

7.5K views · 1mo ago · 1:14:45

Jack Farley on X Ben Pouladian on X BEP Research YouTube

Topics: Why Meta's Muse is a GameChanger · CPUs are Overhyped (Why Token Bills Dwarf CPU Bills) · Nvidia Dominates Custom ASICs ("Free Isn't Cheap Enough") · GPU Supply Isn't Actually That Tight Compared To Everything Else · The Data Center Backlash in U.S. · Anthropic IPO Filing (S-1)

The Private Credit Boom is Over: Redemption Requests Exceed Liquidity | James Elbaor

14K views · 1mo ago · 1:05:03

Guest: James Elbaor

James Elbaor, Founder and Portfolio Manager at Marlton LLC joins OPM to discuss why the private credit boom is officially over. Elbaor explains how artificial intelligence is threatening the SaaS businesses that make up over half a trillion dollars of private credit exposure, while also detailing how liquidity gates are currently trapping investors in massive interval funds like BCRED.

Topics: Private Credit Redemptions Continue · IPO Window Shuts & Credit Fund M&A · AI Threat to SaaS Borrowers · Private Credit vs Private Equity · Systemic Risk and Wrappers · Public vs Private BDC Gap

The Fed Is Losing Control of Credit | Henry Peabody

13K views · 1mo ago · 56:24

Guest: Henry Peabody

Henry Peabody, senior investment strategist at GMO, joins Monetary Matters to explain why the Fed has an unofficial third mandate: managing how credit flows through an economy that is increasingly outside the banks. With private credit and fixed-rate borrowing loosening the link between Fed policy and the real economy, Henry argues that rate hikes are hitting consumers and weaker borrowers while large corporates and the AI complex keep borrowing almost regardless of cost.

Topics: The Fed's Third Mandate · Banks vs. Private Credit · How High Does the Fed Have to Go? · AI Borrowers Don't Care About Rates · The Private Credit Cycle · Defaults, Recoveries, and Software Loans

An Energy Shock and Rate Hikes Could Mean a 2022 Style Bear Market | Eric Wallerstein | Clocktower

6.8K views · 1mo ago · 53:14

Eric Wallerstein, Chief Macro Strategist at Clocktower Group, joins OPM to discuss why he sees substantial risk that the Fed is making a policy mistake by hiking into a supply shock that could cause a 2022 style bear market. He also explores the global coordination of rate hikes and why he believes the participation of lower growth economies like Canada indicate that this is a reaction to higher energy prices and not a substantially higher global neutral rate.

Topics: Fed Hike and Higher for Longer · Oil Driving Global Yields · Canada and Global Neutral Rate · Energy Crisis and Degrowth Risks · Politicized Fed and Credibility · Neutral Rate and AI CapEx Boom