Forward Guidance

The Fed Is A Sideshow While The AI Trade Implodes | Weekly Roundup

11K views · 1d ago · 59:22

The AI trade is cracking and the Fed is too boxed in to help. This week, Felix and Quinn weigh what a fracturing AI story and stalled monetary policy mean for markets heading into year end. We explore gold breaking to new lows, implied correlations spiking, Lagarde's exit and Europe's hike pricing, Big Tech capex cuts, and why oil is ripping into the midterms. Enjoy!

Topics: Brewers Win the World Series · Fed Holds With Two Hawkish Dissents · Lagarde Exits as Central Banks Hike · Fidelity / DAS London · Gold Slides Below $3,900 · Is the AI Trade Fracturing?

The Only Way Out Is Through | Weekly Roundup

17K views · 1w ago · 56:46

Can anything stop oil's run when the SPR is already drained? This week, we dig into why the oil squeeze is becoming structural, not just a Strait of Hormuz story. We explore the oil curve trade, the Brent–WTI gap, tightening financial conditions, and crypto's slow bottoming process. Enjoy!

Topics: Markets In Turmoil, Round Two · Bonds Rip As The Nasdaq Drops 3% · Oil And Bonds Break Up · Why Nobody Wants The Oil Bull Case · Reading The Oil Curve · Brent–WTI Gap Hits Wartime Highs

Where Is The Crypto Alpha Hiding This Cycle?

6.7K views · 1w ago · 32:57

Is crypto finally rewarding the investors who do the work? This week, we sit down with three top allocators at DAS Singapore to unpack where the real alpha lives in an early, uneven bull market. We explore where crypto x AI actually works, building size in illiquid tokens, if $HYPE stays the consensus winner, and seed vs. growth for the next cycle. Enjoy!

Topics: Where Is Crypto AI’s Edge? · Do AI Agents Need Blockchains? · How Crypto Funds Allocate Capital · Finding Alpha In A Crowded Market · Longs, Shorts, And Beating Bitcoin · Seed Or Growth: Where’s The Opportunity?

The Bond Market Is Pricing In Something Worse Than Inflation | Weekly Roundup

18K views · 2w ago · 51:51

Is the AI trade now the only thing standing between the economy and a slowdown? This week, we unpack why bonds are rallying through scalding inflation data and what that says about the current cycle and inflection point in markets.

Topics: Why Are Bonds Ignoring Hot Inflation? · Has The Fed Ruled Out October? · Cracks In The AI Growth Engine · Is A Growth Slowdown Already Coming? · The Market’s Warning Shot · Who Gets Saved In AI Bailouts?

Robinhood & Lighter: Why Wall Street Is Moving Onchain

6K views · 2w ago · 20:04

Are onchain markets about to become the default way the world trades? This week, Felix sits down live at DAS Singapore with Robinhood's Johann Kerbrat and Lighter's Vlad Novakovski to unpack the convergence of TradFi and crypto.

Topics: Why Finance Is Moving Onchain · Can 24/7 Markets Stay Liquid? · Why Perps Are Going Mainstream · Bringing Real Assets To Perps · Can The US Get Perps Right? · Connecting Traditional & Onchain Finance

America’s AI Boom Is Squeezing Main Street | Weekly Roundup

17K views · 1mo ago · 54:00

Can policymakers keep the AI boom alive without squeezing the rest of the economy? This week, Aidan Garrib, PGM Global’s head of global macro strategy and research, joins us to explore the widening divide between Wall Street and Main Street.

Topics: What’s Really Driving Bond Yields? · AI Booms While Housing Breaks · Can The Fed Get Yields Down? · The Fed’s Inflation Balancing Act · Can Main Street Survive AI’s Boom? · Why Policymakers Need Stocks Higher

The Bond Market Pain Isn't Over | Weekly Roundup

17K views · 1mo ago · 1:01:34

The 10-year just closed at 5.22%, but the pain trade may be even higher. This week, 40-year rates trading veteran DCP joins us as we examine the bond selloff and what it would take to actually break something and flip the pain trade in bonds.

Topics: Why Bond Yields Keep Rising · Can Main Street Survive Higher Rates? · Can Treasury Stop The Selloff? · What Can’t The Fed Fix? · Why Higher Yields Remain The Pain Trade · What Breaks The AI Boom?

The Fed Is Hiking Into A Growth Slowdown | Weekly Roundup

17K views · 1mo ago · 1:12:31

Guest: Vincent Deluard

What happens when the Fed hikes into fading stimulus, slowing growth, and persistent inflation? This week, we're joined by Vincent Deluard of StoneX Group to explore America’s emerging stagflation trap, AI’s economic support, and Europe’s potential Japan-style currency reset.

Topics: Did The Fed Turn Too Hawkish? · The Stimulus Boom Is Fading · The Return Of Stagflation · Is The Fed Making A Mistake? · Can Trump Salvage Midterms? · Why AI Leaders Want Regulation

The Market Is Mispricing A Correlation Shock | Dean Curnutt

14K views · 1mo ago · 54:03

Guest: Dean Curnutt

Historically low volatility may be masking a meaningful shift in market risk and the AI trade. This week, Macro Risk Advisors CEO and Alpha Exchange Host Dean Curnutt explains why unusually low stock correlations make tail hedging increasingly compelling.

Topics: Why Stock Correlation Collapsed · What’s Driving The Dispersion Trade? · Could Volmageddon Happen Again? · Why Tail Hedging Looks Attractive · Can Portfolio Insurance Ever Be Free? · Systematic Or Discretionary Hedging?

The Bond Market Is Trapping The Fed | Weekly Roundup

19K views · 1mo ago · 45:24

Bond investors are testing whether policymakers can suppress yields without reigniting the inflation they claim to fear. This week, we unpack the political incentives, stubborn prices, and Fed’s looming credibility test currently testing markets.

Topics: Can Bessent Beat The Bond Market? · Should The 10-Year Yield Be 5.8%? · The Inflation-Growth Trap · Will The Fed Hike? · Is One Credibility Hike Enough? · Is Economic Growth Peaking?

Fiscal Dominance Is Breaking The 60/40 Portfolio | Matt Hougan & Bob Haber

13K views · 2mo ago · 44:51

The 60/40 portfolio was built for an old regime, but what replaces bonds when fiscal dominance and currency debasement become structural? We discuss how Bitcoin and gold, bond-market risk, fiscal dominance, precious metals, and the Fed’s shrinking influence come together to shape a new investing regime. Enjoy!

Topics: Is The 60/40 Portfolio Broken? · From QE To Fiscal Dominance · Is Bitcoin Digital Gold Again? · Sizing Bitcoin And Gold · Why Gold Miners Look Attractive · The Opportunity In Silver

Druck Calls Out Bessent & Will Jackson Hole Derail The Debasement Trade? | Weekly Roundup

24K views · 2mo ago · 53:10

The macro establishment is turning on itself as Stan Druckenmiller challenges Scott Bessent’s efforts to suppress long-term Treasury yields. This week, we unpack the Druck-Bessent clash and what it reveals about fiscal policy, Fed independence, and market intervention.

Topics: Druckenmiller Calls Out Bessent · Is Druck Actually Helping Bessent? · Druck’s AI-Written Op-Ed · Treasury Escalates Bond Buybacks? · Why Yield Suppression Fuels Debasement · Jackson Hole And Warsh’s Dilemma

Treasury-Led Financial Repression Is Ushering In A Debasement Regime | Weekly Roundup

14K views · 2mo ago · 53:43

Treasury is quietly taking control of financial conditions and the market implications could trigger a new wave in the debasement trade. This week, Felix and Quinn unpack Treasury’s accelerating intervention in long-term yields and why it could reignite the rotation into hard assets as policymakers suppress yields and tolerate inflation.

Topics: Treasury Buybacks Change The Game · Is This Fiscal Operation Twist? · Where Does The Debasement Trade Go? · How Long Can They Goose Markets? · Can The Fed Stay Hawkish? · When Should You Buy Inflation Protection?

The Growth Strategy Trapping The Fed | Darius Dale

16K views · 2mo ago · 46:10

Guest: Darius Dale

Running the economy hot may keep growth alive, but it creates a dangerous balancing act for markets. Darius Dale, founder of 42 Macro, joins us to explain why today’s reflationary regime demands a different investing playbook.

Topics: The Risk-On Reflation Regime · Why This Bull Market Feels Harder · The Fed Risks The Bond Market · Inside The Fed’s Policy Tightrope · Can Policymakers Stick The Landing? · Why Risk Management Beats Buy-And-Hold

Washington Is Suppressing Volatility To Keep The AI Boom Alive | Weekly Roundup

13K views · 2mo ago · 59:55

Washington is shifting from monetary management toward state-directed capitalism and the consequences could reshape where capital flows next. This week, Tyler joins us for his final roundup before heading to Shoten Capital, unpacking the shift toward state-directed growth and volatility suppression.

Topics: Tyler's Farewell · Markets Enter A New Regime · Treasury Takes Control Of Volatility · Nuclear Power Supercycle? · Backstopping The Global Short Vol Trade · Are Policy Band-Aids Creating Bigger Risks?